Foresight runs the scenarios forward without the room.
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A rehearsal tells you about one path.
The register is a photograph. A simulated session is better: it rehearses one scenario, turn by turn, with the leadership team in the room. But the room can only walk one path at a time.
The board asks about the paths nobody rehearsed.
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The engine takes the decision seats.
Foresight runs the same engine as a live session, with one change. Where the room decided, the engine now decides, in character, and the scenario runs forward without a facilitator or a clock.
Foresight is what you buy. Projection is the mechanism underneath.
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One step at a time: the walk-forward.
Each step is the same move a session makes: take the current state, the premise and the decisions, and advance to the next state. Then do it again. And again.
Every value in every state still carries its provenance.
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Not one walk. Many.
From the same starting state, the engine walks forward many times. Each walk is a plausible future. Because the decisions and the world differ a little each time, the walks spread.
None of them is a forecast. The spread is the point.
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The divergence band.
Draw the envelope around the walks and you have a divergence band. Where it stays narrow, the futures agree and the picture is stable. Where it widens, the futures disagree.
The widening is where the uncertainty actually lives, and it tells you when.
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Where the futures stop agreeing is a decision point.
Look at where the walks fork hardest. What separates the branches is what was decided there, and when. That fork is a decision point, and foresight shows you where in time it falls.
Not a prediction of which branch. A map of where the branches are.
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Which early indicator deserves a trigger.
Some observable indicators tell the branches apart early; others only confirm what has already happened. Foresight ranks them, so you can set a trigger on the one that moves first.
Weeks of warning before the decision point, not a post-mortem after it.
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What compounds.
Every assessment and every session is a calibration sample: a scored, justified judgement about what mattered and what moved it. As projected futures become past, the band narrows.
The band narrows as the record grows, and it accrues only to those who do the work.